The Bitcoin price appears to have finally started recovering strongly in the past few days, breaking through the $100,000 ceiling on Thursday, January 16. The premier cryptocurrency didn’t stay more than a day above this level the last time it surpassed a six-figure valuation.
However, the price of Bitcoin has returned to as high as $105,000 this time around, its highest level so far in 2025. Interestingly, it appears that this might only be the beginning of an even bigger rally for the Bitcoin price over the next 12 months.
Is 2025 The Peak Year For Bitcoin Price?
In its latest weekly report, blockchain intelligence firm CryptoQuant revealed its target for the Bitcoin price in the year 2025. The on-chain analytics platform sheds light on the potential trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency over the year.
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CryptoQuant projected the price of Bitcoin to reach as high as $249,000 — or at least $145,000 — in the new year. This represents somewhere between a 45% to 150% positive yearly performance for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The market intelligence expects the Bitcoin price rally to be catalyzed by institutional capital flows, in the context of a favorable regulatory environment, accommodative monetary policy in the United States, and historical cyclical patterns.
For instance, the imminent inauguration and administration of pro-crypto Donald Trump is expected to see crypto-friendly regulators take office and implement positive executive actions. Hence, CryptoQuant anticipates a Bitcoin demand rise when President Trump returns to the Oval Office.
Source: CryptoQuant
Furthermore, optimistic macroeconomic conditions are also expected to play a significant role in the Bitcoin price performance in 2025. “The projected interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve could provide a favorable environment for capital to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin,” the report read.
Additionally, 2025 is the last year in Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, which has been historically correlated with significant price surges. The price of Bitcoin reached a new record high of over $67,000 in the final year of the previous cycle.
While this historical perspective suggests that the market leader could reach a new all-time high price this year, it also signals the likelihood of a Bitcoin price top in 2025. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at around 104,450, reflecting an over 4% increase in the past day.
How Much Capital Will Flow Into Bitcoin In 2025?
According to CryptoQuant, roughly $520 billion could flow into the flagship cryptocurrency this year, especially considering favorable regulatory, monetary, and cyclical conditions. This projection was calculated based on the realized capitalization metric, which is the sum value (in US dollars) of each Bitcoin when it last moved on-chain.
CryptoQuant noted:
A total of $86 billion flowed into Bitcoin from 2015 to 2018, then $384 billion from 2019 to 2021, and $440 billion from the end of 2022 to 2025. The realized cap increases particularly quickly in the last year of each Bitcoin cycle, 2017 and 2021, which would suggest Bitcoin could experience a similar inflow of capital in 2025.
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The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image created by DALL-E, chart from TradingView