Despite historical trends suggesting flat or negative returns for Bitcoin in August and September, experts are eyeing several factors that could trigger a significant price breakout.

Key among these are potential shifts in the U.S. like interest rate policy, lower inflation, and the upcoming election season, according to a new report from 10X Research.

Bitcoin (BTC) approached the $70,000 level for the first time since early June during early European trading hours. At the time of writing, the largest cryptocurrency market cap is trading up 3% at $69,430.

It isn’t the only asset that’s starting the week with gains. Ethereum (ETH) boosted the broader crypto market, rising 4.5% to $3,375. Solana (SOL) led the gains among major tokens with a 6% increase, while BNB Chain’s (BNB) and Ripple (XRP) saw rises between 2% and 5%.

This surge comes just days after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his plans to designate Bitcoin as a national strategic asset during a speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.

Still, Bitcoin has been trapped in a gradually declining but well-defined downtrend channel since early March, according to 10X analysts. However, Bitcoin has more frequently tested its upper trendline than its lower one, they add, suggesting increasing upward pressure.

Analysts believe a breakout is more likely than a breakdown, with a decisive close above $69,000 potentially accelerating Bitcoin’s ascent.

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 31 and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on August 14 are identified as critical events that could catalyze a Bitcoin surge.

The researchers anticipate that Fed officials may signal a possible interest rate cut at their September meeting, citing lower inflation, a cooling labor market, and concerns about unnecessary economic weakness due to restrictive rates.

“Historically, the Fed waits 5-10 months between the last rate hike and the first cut; the current 12-month pause is among the longest,” the report notes. “A rate cut indication on July 31 could push Bitcoin above $70,000.”

Despite low trading volumes over the weekend, political figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Trump have made bullish claims about Bitcoin. However, the report suggests these statements lack substance.

“Kennedy’s proposal to buy 4 million BTC as a strategic reserve is unrealistic,” it asserts, adding: “Trump’s remarks about mining all remaining Bitcoin in the US demonstrate a superficial understanding of the asset.”

Support from politicians, even if it lacks substance, could still be a positive sign for the crypto industry.

“This support could encourage more pension funds to buy Bitcoin, potentially acting as a catalyst for price surges,” the report suggests.

Given Bitcoin’s growing dominance and the persistent challenges faced by altcoins, the FOMC meeting on July 31 could be crucial for Bitcoin to break past the $70,000 mark.

Other notable events include significant token unlocks and market developments expected in August.

“Wormhole’s $180 million unlock and the launch of various new crypto projects are significant events to watch,” the report states.

However, the report also notes some headwinds, including relatively weak crypto market structure fundamentals and low stablecoin minting since the April Bitcoin halving. 

Moreover, a series of token unlocks in August, totaling over $1 billion, could exert some downward pressure on prices.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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