Dogecoin (DOGE) could be on the cusp of another massive rally, according to an analysis from technical analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA). He believes the current correction closely mirrors the pattern that set the stage for DOGE’s explosive gains during its previous bull cycle. In his view, the DOGE price crash over the days, measured by percentage, are almost identical to the last run, suggesting the meme coin is now ready to embark on its next major leg up if Bitcoin (BTC) holds steady.
DOGE crashed from around $0.33 to $0.20 in just three days, a plunge of nearly 40%, before bottoming out at $0.20 on Monday. This swift downturn coincided with a market-wide shock sparked by US President Donald Trump’s announcement last Friday of new tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. As fear of a trade war rippled through the financial markets, investors rushed to move their funds into safer assets, causing DOGE to fall by about 25% on Monday alone and pulling it down to levels not seen since November 8 of last year. Bitcoin was similarly affected, slipping to $91,200 as part of the broader market sell-off.
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Recovery began once Trump revealed a deal on Monday with Canada and Mexico that eased some concerns over tariffs, reversing much of the panic-driven flight from cryptocurrencies. According to Kevin, the pace of the rebound supports the thesis that Dogecoin may have already completed its second significant corrective phase of this bull run. He points to the coin’s past cycle, where two large drops preceded an extended surge in price. The most recent drop of nearly 40% in DOGE, in his words, “very similar to last cycle and the drops in terms of percentage,” is evidence that history could be repeating.
In a prior chart, Kevin outlined specific Fibonacci extension levels that, if DOGE follows a similar trajectory to its last bull run, could act as future targets during an upswing. He identified $0.2867 at the 0.618 Fib, $0.30 at the 0.65 Fib, $0.41 at the 0.786 Fib, $0.59 at the 0.886 Fib, $0.74 at the 1.00 Fib, $0.93 at the 1.0866 Fib, $1.57 at the 1.272 Fib, $2.28 at the 1.414 Fib, and $3.95 at the 1.618 Fib.
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He flagged $0.93 as a region of immediate resistance, indicated by a blue box on his chart, and another potential supply zone near $2.28. He then highlighted $3.95 (the 1.618 Fib) as the ultimate upside objective if bullish momentum persists. A surge to this price level would represent an increase of more than 1,400%.
The emphasis on repeating historical patterns centers on the idea that the recent market turbulence may have concluded DOGE’s second major correction, similar to what happened in its previous cycle. With this phase now possibly behind it, the meme coin could be positioned for a significant run if macro conditions remain stable and Bitcoin, often seen as the market’s anchor, does not falter.
As Kevin put it, “In my opinion #Dogecoin just completed its second major correction of its bull cycle. Very similar to last cycle and the drops in terms of percentage were very similar. If all goes well with #BTC then #Doge should begin it’s next leg soon.”
While it remains to be seen whether the price action will unfold exactly as Kevin’s chart suggests, the swift bounce from $0.20 has given traders hope that DOGE may indeed be mirroring its last bull run. The weeks ahead could prove pivotal, particularly if the coin pushes above that the first major resistance levels.
At press time, Dogecoin traded at $0.26.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
